Challenges in Modeling the Effects of Trade Agreements on the Agricultural Sector

Major issues and challenges encountered in modeling and analyzing agricultural and trade policy reforms are reviewed. We focus on modeling approach, and pay special attention to the type and scope of models, calibration of a realistic baseline scenario, representation of the reform agreement, use of extra-model information, choice of metrics to measure reform impacts, and emerging issues in policy modeling. Existing solutions and unresolved issues are examined. We stress the complementarity of various modeling approaches in assessing policy reforms and the importance of helping users understand the limitations of the chosen approach.